So what's it going to be like in FL this winter?
Farmer's Almanac predicts a gloomy "freezing, frigid, and frosty winter for 2/3's of the country", and so many ups and downs "it may remind you of a Polar Coaster". And near normal conditions in the western third of the country -- cold.
The eastern third of the country is expected to see increased rainfall. And a slow start to spring. Even their map lumps Florida in with Georgia and the rest of the southeast and simply says "brisk and wet."
Farmers Almanac 2019-2020 map
Old Farmer's Almanac map for winter 2020 predictions
But what about Florida?
Because our state is a peninsula, we have warm water currents on either coast called the Gulf Stream that hugely impact our climate differently than other coastal states.
Besides the warm coastal breezes, the cold fronts are met with the warm fronts in a diagonal line across upper middle of the state, somewhere between I-10 and about SR 50. This creates a transition zone 100-140 miles deep that sees erratic, unpredictable winter weather, depending on how far south those cold fronts get before being slammed and re-directed by the warm fronts.
Typically, we find the Old Farmer's Almanac predictions are generally more on target for our state. And while their map shows "mild with soakers" for Georgia and general southeastern weather, it says "NICE' for Florida!
NOAA (National Oceanic And Atmospheric Administration) predicts warmer than average temperatures across much of the US, including Florida, for the period of December to February. And more rain than average for the southeast, ending drought conditions --- but doesn't specifically mention North or Central Florida. Next update for winter 2020 will be Nov 21.
Accuweather says "mild" for Florida on their map, and predicts a late arrival for winter in the Northeast -- which usually trickles down to the Southeast.
So what does the Green Genie think?
Well since it's already November, we have an advantage: we can see we're experiencing some early cool weather already. We think winter 2020 in Florida is going to continue to be early, as in first freezes perhaps sometime in mid to late December --- like 30 days from now.
Typically when we see an early winter, it is generally followed by an early Spring -- like by Feb 1 to Feb 10th. For example, in 2015, we saw 18 degrees in Gainesville for 2 consecutive nights, three different times in Dec, beginning the first week of Dec. And then we had short, milder, 27-29 degree freezes, after that with spring starting by the third week of January (2015). It was a great year for spring fruit and low squirrel activity. And fast growth on the trees with such an extended growing season for all, all year long.
And typically when we have an early arrival of winter, the temperatures don't tend to be as harsh overall.
So we're expecting an early freeze, sometime in December, followed by an early Spring -- by the first to the middle of February, if not sooner. And preparing for the unexpected either way -- as usual. But we don't expect the harshness we saw two years ago in January 2018, that wiped out all the smaller tropicals in Central Florida.
Consult the forecasts of weather.com for a more accurate view of weekly weather expectations in this general area.
20 Signs of a Rough Winter
There's an interesting list of 20 signs of a rough winter published here: https://www.countryliving.com
In Florida, we often look for the early arrival of the migratory birds, excessive acorns, and squirrels going nuts with early preparations --- none of which have been apparent this fall in our area.
REFERENCES:
https://www.almanac.com/old-farmers-almanac-2020-winter-forecast
https://www.foxnews.com/us/farmers-almanac-winter-snow-cold-frigid-temperatures
https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/winter-outlook-warmer-than-average-for-many-wetter-in-north
https://unofficialnetworks.com/2019/10/17/noaa-winter-weahter-forecast-prediciton/
https://unofficialnetworks.com/2019/10/03/accuweather-winter-weather-forecast/
https://www.countryliving.com/life/travel/a28722622/farmers-almanac-winter-2019-2020-predictions/